Germany’s crackdown on spies

JR, 24 June 2024

With the showdown with Russia over Ukraine at fever pitch, several stories of espionage have been circulating in Europe. A particular focus has been Germany, where a number of incidents have hit the headlines recently. In June, German prosecutors announced the arrest of three individuals accused of spying on a Ukrainian citizen in Frankfurt. The three were assumed to be working for a “hostile state”. This was code for Russia.

The arrests add to a growing tally of alleged spies being unearthed in Germany. In April alone, at least six suspected hostile agents were arrested across the country. Three were German nationals of Russian origin, who were believed to be undertaking covert operations to disrupt the flow of military aid to Ukraine. The other suspects were connected not with Russia, but with China. The threat in this case could be as much to do with economic espionage against German high-tech industry as with the Ukrainian situation. With that said, growing political and economics ties between Moscow and Beijing might signal covert cooperation again Western targets.

The underlying processes at play here are complex and involve an inter-weaving of politics and history.

In the early stages of the Cold War, the West German intelligence services were on the frontline of hostile penetration attacks by Soviet and East German espionage. Berlin quickly became the epicentre of espionage between East and West. Across the Iron Curtain, the much-feared East German intelligence service, the Stasi, became one of the Communist bloc’s most enthusiastic and effective intelligence services in the pursuit of Moscow’s agenda.

The legacy of the Second World War and the Cold war that followed have been complicated for Germany. On the one hand, it has – until recently – pursued a policy of caution and introversion in European military affairs, for understandable reasons. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, however, has led to a transformation in German politics – a zeitenwende – in which the gloves have come off. Germany has now become the single most significant supplier of military aid to the Ukrainians after the US, including the supply of game-changing capabilities such as the Leopard battle tank. The Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, frequently echoes other European leaders in speaking of Russia and Putin as existential threats to Europe.

But it is not just about what is happening in the east. While Russian forces have been moving into Ukraine, Western Europe is experiencing a rise in popularity of far-right parties and movements. The EU parliamentary elections in the Spring of 2024 showed a considerable shift in sentiment towards such parties, causing shock waves which led the French president, Macron, to call early elections in an attempt to disrupt the momentum.

Germany has one of the most well-organised and successful far right political parties in the shape of the Alternativ fuer Deutschland (AfD – Alternative for Germany). Particularly strong in eastern parts of Germany, the AfD has been on the march with its blend of radical-right, anti-immigrant policies, and working-class, grassroots sentiments, to a point where it is achieved 16 percent of the vote in recent German elections. This was two points ahead of Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats, signalling that the AfD is resolutely entering mainstream politics in Germany.

For Moscow, parties such as the AfD and France’s National Rally offer opportunities. History tells us, of course, that Russia is unlikely to be  particularly sympathetic to a movement that echoes the Nazis. But in the Machiavellian world of intrigue and strategic disruption, the rise of far right parties across Western Europe offers an excellent chance to drive wedges amongst ruling coalitions, and to disrupt the applecart of politics across the much-loathed EU.

It was perhaps no surprise, therefore, that the April arrests of suspected foreign agents revealed links to AfD officials. Maximilian Krah, an assistant to an AfD MEP, was amongst those arrested. He has been accused of passing sensitive information about the European Parliament to Chinese intelligence contacts. Such a connection between Europe’s far right and a hostile state sympathetic to Moscow, adds to suspicions over the intentions of AfD officials during numerous visits to Russia. In the murky world of far right politics, accusations of Russian support for European parties has frequently been alleged but rarely proved definitively. But the chorus of connections and accusations is starting to look like a trend.

One thing that is certain is that the AfD openly states in its campaign literature that German and European support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia should cease. A more “Eurasian” and less Western approach to contemporary politics is advocated.

A confluence of several factors is clearly leading hostile espionage activity to German shores. A more assertive military posture in Berlin in support of Ukraine has clearly angered Moscow. Given Germany’s leading role in the manufacture of high-tech military capabilities, the stakes are high. Russia and China, meanwhile, are clearly pursuing a strategy of comprehensive espionage that is no less enthusiastic than during the Cold War. This will include a mixture of multiple recruitment attempts within German industrial and political corridors; and an exploitation of disruptive force such as the AfD. It will also include embarrassing Berlin wherever possible, as evidenced by the clearly deliberate leak of intercepted conversations in February 2024, in which the German Chancellor and defence officials disagreed over the merits of the supply of high-tech Tauris missiles to Ukraine. The message was: we have penetrated your sensitive channels. And we’ll not hesitate to use what we find to strategic effect.

All of these factors mean that the recent arrests of hostile agents in Germany are very unlikely to be the last.

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